According to a Bank of Baroda analysis, if Russian oil exports were disrupted, it would be a significant issue for the global economy, but India's impact is predicted to be minimal.
According to estimates, the impact on India's oil import bill would be approximately USD 5 billion per year, which the government regards manageable given the country's total trade volume.
It stated that a complete ban on Russian oil exports might pose a bigger issue for the global economy.
According to the study, India's crude oil sourcing pattern has altered dramatically in recent years. Before the Ukraine war in 2021-22, Russia's contribution in India's crude oil imports was modest.
By 2024-25, however, Russia had emerged as the biggest supplier, followed by Iraq with a 19 percent share, Saudi Arabia with 14 percent, and the UAE with approximately 10 percent.
These four nations together accounted for about 80% of India's oil imports in 2024-25. The United States' share, which had previously been significant, fluctuated and fell to a lesser level in recent years.
In terms of pricing, providers differ widely owing to reasons such as delivery, quality, and purchase timing.
In 2024-25, Iraq offered the lowest average price of USD 76.83 per barrel, followed closely by Russia at USD 78.39 per barrel, approximately USD 1.56 lower than India's overall average price.
According to data for June 2025, India's average import price was around USD 69 per barrel, with Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Nigeria, and Brazil offering prices below USD 70 per barrel. Interestingly, Russian oil was not the cheapest that month, as Kuwait and Iraq sold it for less.
India imported around 244 million tonnes of crude oil in 202425, equivalent to 1.8 billion barrels. Every USD 1 increase in oil prices adds around USD 1.8 billion to import bills.
Given that June's average price was just USD 2.50 higher than Russian levels, the study indicated that the likely impact would be manageable.
It said that the total impact would be no more than USD 4.55 billion per year. Given that total commodities imports were USD 720 billion, this would not be a big rise that could not be absorbed.
Globally, the stakes are greater. Russia contributes for around 10% of global oil supply, and a full ban might drive prices beyond USD 80 per barrel in the near term, putting strain on economies worldwide until alternative supplies are found, according to a report.
