Oman's tourism sector is experiencing a positive upswing, as indicated by the latest report from BMI, a Fitch Solutions company. The report predicts a significant increase in tourist arrivals, with numbers expected to exceed 5 million for the first time in 2024.
This optimistic outlook highlights the growing appeal of Oman as a travel destination. The report's projections are based on data from the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI), which recorded 4.3 million arrivals in 2023.
According to the BMI report, tourist arrivals in Oman are expected to grow by 24.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching a total of 5.3 million. This upward trend is anticipated to continue throughout the medium-term forecast period (2024-2028), with a projected 10.8 million arrivals by 2028. These figures suggest that Oman is well on track to achieve its target of welcoming 11.0 million tourists by 2040.
In terms of visitor demographics, the report reveals that approximately 1.6 million arrivals in 2023 were from GCC states, with an estimated 610,000 visitors from India, followed by 150,000 from Germany and 118,000 from Mainland China.
BMI also notes that Oman's long-term goal of attracting 11 million tourists annually by 2040, as outlined in the Vision 2040 Strategy, appears to be within reach.
According to our forecast, the country is on track to achieve its target, with strong growth expected in the medium term. We anticipate an average year-on-year growth of 20.4% between 2024-2028, resulting in 10.8 million arrivals by 2028. This growth will be primarily driven by key markets in the GCC, Asia-Pacific, and Europe.
However, the report highlights a potential downside risk due to weaker global economic growth, particularly affecting arrivals from the Asia-Pacific and European markets in 2024. Factors such as high living costs and tighter credit conditions may also impact discretionary spending, potentially affecting long-haul travel to Oman.
Despite these challenges, BMI maintains an optimistic outlook for the industry as a whole. Oman's tourism sector is expected to remain resilient, especially in the medium-to-long term, thanks to its accessibility from key source markets in the GCC and strong transportation links. The region's low barriers to entry and high household disposable incomes will drive demand for experiential products and services.
Additionally, BMI emphasizes that Oman offers an attractive market for tourists seeking luxury holiday options. However, it also emphasizes the importance for Oman to compete with other GCC markets that are also expanding their tourism offerings as part of broader economic diversification efforts.
