Muscat: According to projections from the GCC Statistical Centre (GCC-Stat), the gross domestic product (GDP) of the GCC nations is anticipated to grow by 3.7% in 2024, based on constant prices. The Centre forecasts that this growth will accelerate to 4.5% in 2025, before stabilizing at 3.5% in 2026.
The expected growth for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is primarily attributed to an increase in oil production within the GCC countries, particularly as the OPEC+ alliance gradually relaxes production quotas starting in the latter half of 2024.
This growth trajectory is further supported by the development of new gas fields in the region and a robust economic recovery in sectors such as transportation, tourism, and infrastructure projects, bolstered by expansionary public finance policies.
Initial forecasts from GCC-Stat also suggest a notable improvement in the non-oil sector, projecting a growth rate of 4.5% for 2024, with subsequent growth rates of 3.3% and 4.1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
This growth will be fueled by a surge in private sector activities, particularly in tourism, transportation, storage, and retail. Additionally, infrastructure projects across the GCC will play a crucial role in enhancing growth in related sectors and stimulating private sector expansion.
The forecasts highlight that the ongoing implementation of economic diversification strategies by GCC countries from 2024 to 2026 is expected to yield significant growth in key sectors, especially in renewable energy, technology, innovation, and manufacturing industries.
The GCC-Stat reported that the GDP at constant prices for the GCC nations in 2023 reached 1,691.8 billion US dollars, reflecting a growth of 0.5% compared to 2022. The non-oil sector contributed significantly, with an increase of 3.3% in 2023.
In terms of average per capita GDP at current prices, the GCC countries experienced a 5% decrease in 2023, bringing the figure down to 36.7 thousand US dollars from 38.6 thousand US dollars in 2022.
The GDP at current prices for the GCC countries represented 2% of the global GDP, which totaled 105.4 trillion US dollars in 2023. Furthermore, it constituted 60.5% of the overall Arab GDP, amounting to 3.5 trillion US dollars.
Looking ahead, GCC-Stat forecasts that inflation rates in the region will stabilize at 2.4%, 2.6%, and 2.1% from 2024 to 2026. Factors that could heighten inflationary pressures include rising consumer prices, increased costs of imported raw materials, higher consumption rates, and elevated public spending across the GCC due to job growth, wage increases, and improved household incomes.
Additionally, monetary policies in the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan, which aim to maintain interest rates to mitigate inflation, are expected to aid in stabilizing inflation rates within the GCC.
According to data from the Centre, the consumer price inflation rate in the GCC countries for 2023 was approximately 2.2%, a decrease from the 3.1% recorded in 2022. This decline can be attributed to enhancements in supply chains, falling crude oil prices, reduced global food prices, and the strengthening of the US dollar against other major currencies. It is important to note that the currencies of the GCC nations are pegged to the US dollar.
