New Delhi: According to a report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), India's economic growth outlook remains stable despite uncertainties in the global landscape.
The consistency in most forecasts reflects confidence in the resilience of the domestic economy, bolstered by strong consumer spending, government investment in infrastructure, and a thriving services sector. Nevertheless, external challenges, such as geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in the global economy, could present obstacles.
The report anticipates that India's GDP growth for the financial year 2024-25 will fall within the range of 6 percent to 7 percent year-on-year (YoY). It noted that most economic growth projections were either maintained or adjusted slightly during January and February 2025.
Among key institutions, Nomura has revised its GDP growth forecast down to 6.0 percent. In contrast, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) has upheld its estimate at 6.4 percent, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also kept its projection steady at 6.5 percent. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has increased its forecast to 6.8 percent, indicating a positive outlook for India's economic path.
Moody's has maintained its forecast at 7.0 percent, which is the highest among the estimates provided.
Policymakers and industry leaders will be vigilant in monitoring essential economic indicators in the upcoming months, as GDP growth expectations remain largely stable, to evaluate any possible changes in the nation's growth trajectory.
The report indicated a decrease in the urban employment rate, while the rural employment rate experienced a slight increase in January 2025, resulting in a minor decline in overall employment figures. Additionally, both the demand for and provision of MGNREGA work saw a small rise in January 2025, reaching a seven-month peak.
WPI inflation experienced a slight reduction in January 2025 compared to December 2024, attributed to a decrease in food price inflation and ongoing deflation in fuel and power prices. CPI inflation also fell to a five-month low in January 2025, as food price inflation moderated alongside a drop in energy costs.
The report highlighted a significant increase in GST collections, primarily due to a notable rise in revenue from imports compared to the previous year. However, both the Future Expectations Index (FEI) and Current Situation Index (CSI) showed a decline, indicating weakened sentiment across most survey metrics, with the exception of price levels.
On the trade front, the merchandise trade deficit expanded to USD 23 billion in January 2025, driven by a decrease in exports, particularly in petroleum products. Conversely, the services trade surplus reached an all-time high, propelled by a substantial increase in services exports.
