Rome: As discussions heat up in various European nations regarding Elon Musk's efforts to sway domestic politics, another conversation is unfolding about the wealthiest individual in the world: his expanding role in the global satellite industry.
The Italian government is currently engaged in advanced negotiations with Musk's SpaceX for a €1.6 billion ($1.65 billion) agreement to deliver encrypted telecommunications services through the Starlink satellite internet platform.
Officials from Italy have confirmed that these discussions are ongoing. However, the negotiations have sparked controversy, with opposition leaders accusing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of jeopardizing national security.
Namrata Goswami, an independent expert in space policy, believes that such agreements will become increasingly common, as Starlink offers fast, reliable satellite internet and secure communications with a truly global reach.
"What governments seek, particularly in areas like intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and communication, are systems that are purportedly more encrypted and secure, based on what SpaceX provides," she stated in an interview with DW.
Meloni has maintained close ties with both Trump and Musk, dismissing any claims that she discussed the Starlink agreement during her recent trip as "utterly absurd."
Musk's engagement with Meloni could further enhance his significant influence in the realm of low Earth orbit satellites, which operate at altitudes of 2,000 km (1,200 miles) or lower. These satellites are particularly advantageous for telecommunications and internet services.
Last year, SpaceX expanded its Starlink customer base by adding over 20 countries, bringing its total to more than 100 countries and territories served. The company currently operates nearly 7,000 active satellites in orbit.
A significant portion of internet services provided by Starlink caters to both businesses and consumers. Additionally, several national governments utilize Starlink for their communication needs and military purposes. The U.S. Department of Defense has implemented a specialized service known as Starshield, which is tailored for select government and military entities. Notably, Ukraine has extensively relied on Starlink during its conflict with Russia.
Goswami suggests that the situation in Ukraine may prompt other national governments to consider Starlink for military communications. She stated, "In terms of military applications, I anticipate that countries in Europe, as well as those in Asia, will seek to establish agreements with Starshield, if not Starlink, to enhance their military communication capabilities."
However, a potential agreement for SpaceX to deliver significant communication services to a major EU government would represent a notable shift. This could also place Italy at odds with the EU's overarching space strategy.
Recently, the European Commission finalized a contract to launch IRIS², an initiative aimed at deploying 260 satellites in both low and medium Earth orbit by 2030. The goal is to ensure that these satellites will offer secure telecommunications to EU member states.
A representative from the European Commission informed DW that while EU governments are not mandated to utilize this service, it serves as "a concrete response to the increasing demand from the Union's governmental bodies for secure, sovereign, and reliable space-based satellite communication services."
There are currently no EU regulations preventing member states from using specific satellite or internet services, including Starlink.
The spokesperson clarified that Italy is free to pursue Starlink if it chooses, while also highlighting the country's significant involvement in the development of IRIS².
The spokesperson stated, "The Commission does not provide commentary on discussions of this nature regarding a supposed agreement between Italy and Starlink. Italy, as a sovereign nation, is responsible for its own decisions. Notably, Italy is set to host one of the three control centers for the IRIS² initiative."
According to Goswami, Musk's achievements with SpaceX and Starlink have positioned him as a dominant force in the global satellite industry. She highlights that SpaceX's capability to manufacture reusable rockets significantly enhances their launch potential, placing them well ahead of competitors.
Discussing the SpaceX Starship, Musk's ambitious project featuring a large reusable rocket designed for heavy payloads, she remarked, "Should Starship succeed, it will enable even greater launch capacity, solidifying their dominance in this sector."
Nonetheless, both China and India are actively developing alternatives to Starlink and have already made significant progress. Goswami notes, "If India and China manage to catch up, they could provide a more affordable and viable option for countries, particularly in the developing world."
Regarding Musk's dealings with governments like Italy and the potential implications for global geopolitical stability, she expresses concern about the risks associated with his increasing political involvement.
She points out the potential danger of Musk having the authority to restrict a government or military's access to Starlink services based on political disagreements.
"There must be assurances that services cannot be arbitrarily terminated due to disapproval of a nation's policies," she emphasizes. "This is concerning because of his considerable influence, which could lead him to sway his company's decisions regarding whom they choose to support."
