New Delhi: As the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle approaches its conclusion with 10 Tests remaining, multiple teams are still vying for a top-two finish, although no team has secured a guaranteed spot yet, according to ESPNcricinfo.
South Africa tops the standings with a percentage of 63.33 and has two home matches against Pakistan left to play. Their recent 2-0 series victory over Sri Lanka has bolstered their position significantly. To clinch a place in the final, they need to win at least one of the upcoming Tests against Pakistan. A 1-1 series outcome would leave them at 61.11 percent, with only India or Australia capable of surpassing them.
If both Tests end in a draw, South Africa would conclude with a percentage of 58.33. In this scenario, India would need to achieve a 3-2 victory over Australia, while Australia would have to win both Tests in Sri Lanka to overtake South Africa. Should South Africa lose the series 1-0, they would depend on Australia winning no more than two of their remaining five Tests, or India achieving at most one win and one draw from their three Tests in Australia.
Sri Lanka, currently holding a percentage of 45.45, has two home Tests against Australia remaining. Even if they win both, they would only reach 53.85 percent, making them reliant on other teams' performances. South Africa and either India or Australia could exceed this percentage. For both teams to finish below 53.85 percent, Australia would need to win their series against India 2-1 with two draws, while South Africa would have to lose both Tests against Pakistan.
India currently holds a percentage of 57.29 and has three away Tests remaining against Australia. To secure a spot in the final, they must achieve two victories and at least one draw, which would elevate their percentage to 60.53, ensuring they finish at least second behind South Africa. If India wins the series 3-2, their final percentage would be 58.77, and Australia could still end up below them even if they win 1-0 against Sri Lanka. Conversely, if India loses the series 2-3, their percentage would drop to 53.51, allowing Australia, Sri Lanka, and South Africa to surpass them. In such a scenario, India would need South Africa to lose both Tests against Pakistan and hope for at least a draw in Australia’s matches against Sri Lanka.
Australia, with a current percentage of 60.71, has three home Tests against India and two away Tests in Sri Lanka left to play. They require two wins from their three Tests against India to guarantee a place in the final. Even if they were to lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, a 3-2 series victory over India would result in a percentage of 55.26, which is still above India's potential 53.51 and Sri Lanka's 53.85. Should Australia lose the series 2-3, India would rise to 58.77, compelling Australia to win both Tests in Sri Lanka to surpass them. Alternatively, they would need South Africa to secure no more than one draw against Pakistan, which would leave South Africa at 55.56%, a figure Australia could exceed with a win and a draw in Sri Lanka.
Pakistan currently stands at 33.33 percent, presenting a narrow mathematical opportunity for qualification, dependent on South Africa losing an over-rate point. Even if Pakistan secures victories in all four of their remaining matches, they would only reach 52.38 percent, slightly trailing South Africa's 52.78 percent. If South Africa were to lose a match, their percentage would decrease to 52.08 percent. With a series of favorable outcomes, it remains theoretically possible for Pakistan to secure a second-place finish behind either Australia or India, although the likelihood is quite low.
New Zealand, England, Bangladesh, and West Indies have been eliminated from the race for a spot in the final.
