Geneva: The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has forecasted that global trade will reach an unprecedented USD33 trillion in 2024, marking a USD1 trillion increase from 2023.
This growth translates to an annual increase of 3.3 percent, highlighting the robustness of global trade in the face of persistent challenges.
UNCTAD's latest Global Trade Update indicates that the significant rise in trade services, which saw a 7 percent increase this year, played a crucial role in this growth, contributing to half of the total expansion.
In contrast, trade in goods experienced a more modest growth of 2 percent, remaining below the levels seen in 2022.
The report pointed out the difficulties faced by developing economies, which have historically been vital contributors to global trade.
These economies experienced a 1 percent decline in imports and a similar drop in South-South trade during the third quarter of 2024.
Conversely, advanced economies drove growth in this quarter, with stable demand resulting in a 3 percent increase in imports and a 2 percent rise in exports.
Despite the challenges, the report highlighted potential opportunities for developing nations to leverage high-growth sectors. Trade in ICT goods and apparel surged by 13 and 14 percent, respectively, in Q3 2024, indicating a pathway for diversification into value-added industries.
Sector-specific analysis revealed downturns in traditional sectors that are vital for developing economies. Energy trade decreased by 2 percent in Q3 and 7 percent over the year, while metals trade contracted by 3 percent.
Automotive trade saw a 3 percent decline in Q3 but is projected to finish the year with a 4 percent annual growth rate.
At the same time, stable global growth forecasts and lower inflation present encouraging opportunities for enhancing resilience in 2025.
